Sudan's conflict has entered a new phase as the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) intensify operations in North Kordofan, following the capture of Bara in one of their most significant battlefield gains since regaining control of most of Khartoum.

The advance strengthens the army's position in central Sudan and increases pressure on the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), as Kordofan increasingly replaces the capital as the war's primary battleground. The region is strategically important because it serves as the main gateway to Darfur, where the RSF retains its strongest military presence.

The latest operation forms part of the SAF's broader campaign to consolidate control over key transport corridors and isolate RSF positions before any renewed political negotiations. Meanwhile, the RSF continues reinforcing its positions across western Kordofan and Darfur, relying on mobile units and drone operations to slow the army's advance.

Diplomatic efforts to secure a humanitarian ceasefire and revive negotiations continue, but ongoing military operations suggest both sides remain focused on improving their battlefield positions before engaging in any meaningful political process.

At the same time, humanitarian conditions continue to deteriorate, with displacement rising across Kordofan and Darfur and growing concerns over access to food, medical services, and humanitarian assistance.

Background

Following its recapture of most of Khartoum, the Sudanese army shifted its operational focus westward, seeking to regain control of strategic routes leading to Darfur. Over recent weeks, Kordofan has emerged as the decisive theater of the conflict, with both sides concentrating forces around key towns and logistical corridors.

Assessment

The battle for Kordofan is likely to shape the next stage of Sudan's war. Continued SAF advances would increase military pressure on RSF-held areas in Darfur and strengthen the army's leverage in any future negotiations. Conversely, if the RSF succeeds in slowing or reversing these gains, the conflict is likely to evolve into a prolonged war of attrition across western Sudan, delaying prospects for a political settlement while deepening the country's humanitarian crisis.