Sources told Sheba Intelligence that the Houthis are preparing for a major multi-axis offensive aimed at breaching government defensive lines around Marib, with the operation potentially beginning within the coming days.
According to information obtained by Sheba Intelligence, the reported plan relies on three main axes of advance, apparently intended to place simultaneous pressure on government forces and stretch their defensive capacity around the city.
The first axis is expected to advance from Al-Jubah toward Jabal al-Balaq al-Sharqi (Eastern Balaq). The reported movement would place pressure on one of the key mountainous defensive positions protecting the southern approaches to Marib.
The second axis would move from Dhanat al-Zawr toward Jabal al-Balaq al-Qibli, before pushing toward Al-Tala’ah al-Hamra. This axis would increase pressure on the western and southwestern defensive belt surrounding the city.
A third axis is expected to run from Raghwan toward Medghal, creating additional pressure from the north and northwest and potentially forcing government forces to distribute units and reserves across several fronts simultaneously.
Taken together, the reported plan suggests that the Houthis may seek to avoid concentrating their forces on a single breakthrough attempt. Instead, simultaneous pressure across several fronts could be intended to stretch government defenses and identify vulnerabilities that could be exploited for a deeper advance.
Background:
The reported preparations come after what sources described as a major government military operation on Marib’s southwestern front.
According to the sources, government forces carried out a planned offensive that resulted in the effective dismantling of an entire Houthi brigade, with most of its personnel and field commanders reportedly killed during the operation.
Sheba Intelligence has not independently verified the reported casualty figures or the full extent of the brigade’s losses.
The reported losses provide important context for the latest Houthi preparations around Marib, which could represent an attempt to regain the initiative and rebuild pressure on government defensive lines following the setback on the southwestern front.
Marib Within a Wider Three-Front Escalation
The latest developments in Marib fit into a broader pattern previously documented by Sheba Intelligence. In July, intelligence sources reported that a high-level meeting in Sanaa, overseen by Iran’s ambassador to the Houthi authorities, had identified three priority theatres for a potential wider military escalation: the Marib–Al-Jawf front, the Taiz–Bab al-Mandab front, and Yemen’s border with Saudi Arabia.
A subsequent Sheba Intelligence investigation reported that senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Abdul Reza Shahlai had met senior Houthi military leaders to discuss what sources described as a Tehran-backed plan for a new phase of the war. According to those sources, the discussions focused particularly on weakening or capturing Marib and its oil resources, while expanding the western-coast campaign toward Bab al-Mandab. Sheba Intelligence noted at the time that it had not independently verified all details of the reported meeting.
Since those reports, the western-coast theatre has undergone a major escalation. The significance of the renewed activity around Marib is therefore that it corresponds to another of the principal theatres identified in the earlier intelligence. Sheba Intelligence's August reporting had already described Bab al-Mandab, Marib’s oil resources and pressure on Saudi Arabia as interconnected elements of the emerging escalation.
